Evidence of Long-term Period Variations in the Exoplanet Transit Database (ETD)

An artist’s concept of the hot-Jupiter exoplanet WASP-12b. Image credit: NASA / ESA / G. Bacon, STScI / C. Haswell, Open University.
Transit timing for WASP-12 b from Hagey et al. (2022).

able 4. Model Comparison for Secondary Analysis—Data Variance for ETD Transit Times

TargetDecay Rate1σ Unc.BIClinearBICdecayΔBIC
 (ms yr−1)(ms yr−1)   
WASP-12 b−34.84.9223.7202.7−21.0
HAT-P-19 b−641780.678.2−2.4
TrES-1 b−16.03.773.368.3−5.0
WASP-4 b−6.72.462.662.70.1
TrES-2 b−22.08.0159.0160.31.3
TrES-5 b−2511118.3120.52.2
HAT-P-32 b−321295.596.71.2
WASP-10 b−10.17.6131.6135.53.9
WASP-43 b3.54.0126.5130.94.4
TrES-3 b0.011.9227.8233.15.3
Model comparison of the results from the reduced data of the top 10 systems after replacing the ETD transit center uncertainties with the standard deviation of the nominal timing residuals. A negative ΔBIC value favors the orbital decay model. From Hagey et al. (2022).